Mock Draft NFL - 2026 NFL Draft

NFL Week 18 Anticipation; CFB Playoff Quarterfinals Thoughts

Lou Pickney
January 3, 2026


It's Not Tanking; It's Tactical Use of IR

When the Raiders abruptly put standout EDGE Maxx Crosby on IR to end his season last week, early speculation was that Crosby might be seen as potential trade bait during the offseason.

Now? I'm not so sure. That's because it wasn't just Crosby who went on IR. It was also star tight end Brock Bowers (knee) and starting safety Jeremy Chinn (back).

At this time of year, nearly everyone is playing through some sort of injury, especially with the 17-game schedule. And there are plausibly legitimate reasons for Crosby and Bowers and Chinn to be on IR.


But some people will still call it tanking, even though the players who actually do play are (at least usually) giving it their all. There needs to be another term for that.

The NFL Draft makes things tricky because, near the end of the season, fans of teams out of contention know they'll be better-served long-term to have a higher draft pick. To get that, they need to lose.

But you don't want to cheer against your own team, so it makes for a frustrating situation. Adding the extra game to the schedule just extended the discomfort.

Yet I know we're stuck with the longer season and they're not going back. But understand that these things have long-term ramifications.

If Las Vegas loses to Kansas City tomorrow at Allegiant Stadium, the Raiders will secure the top overall selection in this year's draft.


Dante Moore Is Back and He's #1

After some consideration, I've gone back to the blanket assumption policy when it comes to presuming NFL draft-eligible players who also have remaining NCAA eligibility beyond this season will go pro.

Arch Manning should've been a one-off. Even though I was right about him and I was right about LaNorris Sellers, that doesn't mean it's a best practice.

Sometimes in life, even when you're right, you're wrong. When that happens, you have to act accordingly.

For me, that meant making a change all up way up at #1 overall in my mock.

There are clearly some within the NFL who are trying to use media connections to suggest to Oregon QB Dante Moore that he stay in school for 2026. And they have a point when it comes to the track record of NFL quarterbacks within fewer than 20 college starts.

But, realistically, Moore has nothing left to prove, no matter what happens in the rematch with Indiana.

Imagine the hypothetical phone call from Tom Brady to Dante Moore: You have to come out in this draft. We might not be able to get you next year. We're stuck with Geno Smith for one more season; you won't be rushed. Come win a Super Bowl with us in Las Vegas, and you'll be a legend forever.


CFB Homefield Advantage

We're two years into the 12-team playoff era in FBS football and the top four seeds are now 1-7 in the quarterfinal round. That first-round bye has left some teams looking rusty.

Moreover, the lack of homefield advantage in the quarterfinals is noteworthy and needs to change. Kick the bowls out of the playoff. They're not good for the sport in that capacity.


Setting Up the Semifinals

The situation near the end at Ole Miss with Lane Kiffin in late 2025 was notably awkward, particularly for the people involved having to wait to be sure the Rebels weren't going to be playing in the SEC Championship game before announcing that Kiffin was heading to LSU.

At times, it got more than awkward.

You can understand why Kiffin might be upset at that characterization. Being a college football head coach is an incredibly stressful and difficult gig. Kiffin has excelled at it.

And you don't need @hoe_math to understand why a seven-year, $91 million contract made it worthwhile for Kiffin to jump to Baton Rouge.

It's ridiculous that the system tolerates a coach walking out on a playoff team, but it's rather on-brand that Kiffin was the one to do it. And most Ole Miss fans already knew: he was never yours, it was just your turn.


But losing Kiffin hasn't stopped Ole Miss, who followed a decisive home win over Tulane with a thrilling victory over Georgia. It's wild (and good for the sport) that the Miami vs. Ole Miss winner will play for the national championship.

The most interesting pending NCAA decision involves Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss, who is seeking an extra year of eligibility for a medical reshirt.

Chambliss suffered from chronic tonsilitis during the 2022 season at Division-II Ferris State and didn't play in any games. Common sense should dictate Chambliss receiving one more year of eligibility via a medical hardship waiver, but the NCAA might not see it that way.

As for Indiana vs. Oregon part two, it should be a great game if their regular-season meeting is any indication. Fernando Mendoza vs. Dante Moore is a marquee matchup.


2026 NFL Mock Draft

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