Lou Pickney's NFL Draft Insight
July 29, 2025
If you have any questions/comments, feel free to contact Lou Pickney by email (lou@loupickney.com).
NFL training camps are underway, and college and high school football teams are braving sweltering-hot conditions to get ready for the upcoming season.
We're at an interesting point in time as far as options go for top-level college quarterbacks who have eligibility beyond the 2025 campaign.
Former Texas QB Quinn Ewers is a cautionary tale. Ewers reportedly passed up an $8,000,000 NIL deal to enter the 2025 NFL Draft, only to end up sliding to the Miami Dolphins in Round 7.
Ewers signed a four-year, $4,331,576 contract with the Dolphins. The only guaranteed part of it is the $131,576 signing bonus.
It's impossible to miss the cross-town contrast with Carson Beck, the former Georgia QB who transferred to the University of Miami for 2025. Beck is expected to make roughly $4.3M in NIL cash for one season with the Hurricanes.
This is supply-and-demand economics in play. The stakes will only get higher from here.
International readers might not understand some of the unique dynamics with American college sports. I can't stress enough how deeply some fans care about their favorite college football team.
That includes wealthy fans. People with enough cash to tilt the table.
At some point the NIL money for a college QB will eclipse the signing bonus for the NFL's #1 overall pick (which this year was $32,159,720 for Cam Ward). I don't think we're all that far away from it. Artificial attempts to cap the money will be ineffective.
This is also quietly helping the NFL, which stands to benefit from quarterbacks with more experience entering the league. And family financial hardships that used to prompt players to jump who really weren't NFL-ready now can be alleviated via NIL cash.
Yet I realize how off-putting all of this is to some people. The lack of team continuity with so many transfers really bothers some fans.
The fact it's happening amidst so much change in college football isn't helping. Traditional rivalries have ended abruptly for some schools, particularly former Pac-12 programs.
At least we got Texas vs. Texas A&M back.
This is all important context for how things look in my current 2026 NFL Mock Draft as of this writing. You'll notice a pattern.
SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Notre Dame. And that's it.
It goes beyond round one, though. Look at how many evaluator big boards have zero players outside of that group in their Top 100 right now.
It's understandable that returning players from big universities will be slotted higher as a starting point. But the divide has never felt this pronounced before.
Look at the running back boards in particular. Eventually you'll find McNeese State RB TreVonte Citizen or James Madison RB George Pettaway, but you'll likely do a lot of scrolling to get there.
It's similar with defensive tackles. Tough for smaller conference schools to hold onto players with elite size and/or elite speed.
LSU at Clemson on August 30 should be great. It already has a storyline with "Death Valley Junior" but the QB matchup of Clemson's Cade Klubnik vs. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier is going to be the big drawing card.
We're within 30 days of the start of the season. The FBS schedule begins on Saturday, August 23 with Kansas State vs. Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland.
2027 NFL Draft Prospects
AFC East: Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots |
New York Jets | Miami Dolphins
AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South:
Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
Tennessee Titans
AFC West:
Denver Broncos |
Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers
NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys |
New York Giants |
Philadelphia Eagles |
Washington Commanders
NFC North:
Chicago Bears |
Detroit Lions |
Green Bay Packers |
Minnesota Vikings
NFC South:
Atlanta Falcons |
Carolina Panthers |
New Orleans Saints |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West:
Arizona Cardinals |
Los Angeles Rams |
San Francisco 49ers |
Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Football - ADP: Average Draft Position - Solid Locks and Sleepers
