December 21, 2025
In the old days, it used to be different.
I'm talking 2003–2005, that range, the early years of Draft King. Back when major TV network website draft boards often included only senior prospects during the season.
That was a mindset drawn from the pre-internet era, a time when there were finite limits on how many outlets could reach the masses. Back when the draft was seen as a seasonal event but nothing worth fretting over year-round.
On the flip side, I started to get angry emails from fans who didn't care for me projecting that their favorite player wouldn't be returning to college for the next season.
So I made it a blanket policy: presume all players with draft eligibility will leave for the NFL, no matter what they say. And that served me well for two decades.
The network websites finally came around as independent outlets like mine started to proliferate, essentially forcing them to adjust in spite of whatever pressure the NCAA or the NFL exerted. And that's pretty much how it stayed until this year.
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I wrote at length in August about the unique circumstances surrounding Arch Manning at Texas, with so many indications (and family tradition) suggesting he'd stay at Texas for next year.
But initially, I stuck with the policy that had served me well for 20 years. Then I read what Matt Miller wrote for ESPN about how EVERY evaluator polled believed Manning would return to Austin for 2026. Right around that same time, Todd McShay excluded Manning from his first 2026 mock.
The tone and tenor were different than anything I'd witnessed prior. And I know that McShay is legit -- much respect to him.
So I made an exception and pulled Manning from my mock.
Initially, Dante Moore wasn't in my early 2026 mock drafts, in large part because the expectation from evaluators was that Moore would be back at Oregon for 2026. Moore finally debuted for me at #8 in early September and quickly became a top-five mainstay.
I'm always looking for the pushback. So when I read in Jeff Howe's column on quarterbacks in The Athletic on November 14 that "NFL teams think the 20-year-old redshirt sophomore will return to school" regarding Moore, it got my attention.
This felt different the same way Manning's situation felt different. It felt like settled business, something that is inevitable. Matter-of-fact.
And, as I wrote here previously, Oregon has Phil Knight backing them financially. Mega bucks.
So I pulled Moore. Then, after the Horse Garbage silliness, there were similar strong indications from South Carolina that QB LaNorris Sellers would be returning to college next season. So I pulled him, too.
That made me an outlier. In many ways, this time of year is the pre-season for mock draft people. We don't know the field and we don't know the draft order. Next month, no one is going to care what I projected in November.
But I strive for accuracy above all else. And, ultimately, I was proven right on Manning and I was proven right on Sellers.
Look at what happened to Quinn Ewers. In essence, Ewers took a pay cut to go to the NFL rather than transfer from Texas for a big NIL payday, ended up sliding to the seventh round in this past April's draft, and now is stuck with that low slotting for four seasons.
Carson Beck has reportedly earned more as a college QB in Miami in 2025 than Ewers has as a professional with the Dolphins. This really is a new era.
Speaking of the Dolphins, it will be interesting to see what they do with Tua Tagovailoa and his massive contract. There are no easy answers.
It's notable how some mid-level quarterbacks have ended up with franchise-crippling second contracts the likes of which we haven't seen since JaMarcus Russell's rookie deal in Oakland. The rolling guaranteed years make it very difficult to escape without taking a severe cap hit.
NIL has dramatically shifted the balance of power. Keep in mind that it took the NCAA losing decisively in the U.S. Supreme Court twice for this to happen.
What we've seen thus far with early entries is that the non-QB underclassmen with eligibility who are projected as first rounders have generally been declaring, at least among those not involved in the playoff. That tells me the NIL money is good, but not *that* good, for the clear top non-QB prospects.
But it's very different for quarterbacks. As of this writing, it appears the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, is likely to leave for the NFL. But even that is conjecture. To this point, no other quarterbacks with remaining eligibility have declared.
We'll find out soon enough if that's how it's going to play out.