Lou Pickney's Latest Insight
August 3, 2025
If you have any questions/comments, feel free to contact Lou Pickney by email: lou@loupickney.com
I'm in the process of setting up the Draft King archive here, moving over many years of work from draftking.com and consolidating other website efforts in one spot: MockDraftNFL.com.
You could imagine my surprise this past Friday when I discovered something I didn't remember having crafted: a mostly-complete 2002 NFL Mock Draft.
It has been sitting online for 23+ years, going back so far that the original source file is in .html form instead of .shtml -- hiding right in front of me all along. And now I have it saved here with my other previous mock drafts.
Soon after posting my most recent column this past Tuesday morning, I made the decision to pull Texas QB Arch Manning from my 2026 NFL Mock Draft. I've never done something like that before.
Yet the decision was easy once I read this piece by Matt Miller, who noted that every evaluator polled for it believed Manning would not be leaving the University of Texas following the 2025 season.
You seldom hear that kind of unified pushback, particularly at this time of the year. It got my attention.
We're in a new era in college football. But it also would be very much on-brand for Manning to stay for four years. In some ways, what's old is new again.
August is traditionally a difficult month for NFL players. Training camp is a necessarily grueling experience, often in brutally hot conditions, because that's what it takes to get ready for the regular season.
But for many there is considerable uncertainty. There are only so many opening day roster spots available. Even if you make the preliminary final cut for a team, you could still get bumped in the giant game of musical chairs before the Week 1 deadline with so many players suddenly hitting the market.
For hundreds of players: this is it. They won't make the final cut, won't land on a practice squad, won't end up in the CFL or the UFL, and will ultimately have to move on to the next chapter of their lives.
Remember: this is a business.
I've added new player profiles to the 2026 NFL Draft Prospect list. I've also done quite a bit of reading of evaluator player lists, Big Board or otherwise.
One name that keeps showing up high is Ohio State safety Caleb Downs. An exceptional open-field tackler, Downs started his career at Alabama, where he excelled, and kept his high-level play going in Columbus, Ohio where he was voted unanimously as an All-American for the 2024 season.
As for 2025? Word from the Buckeyes is that Downs will be utilized some this season as a nickel cornerback.
It will be interesting to see how things play out for Downs. The last time a pure safety went top five in the draft was Tennessee's Eric Berry at #5 in 2010. Since then, only two safeties have gone top ten: Alabama's Mark Barron at #7 in 2012 and LSU's Jamal Adams at #6 in 2017.
It's not because of a lack of talent that this has happened. To point, just look back at the top safeties from this past April's draft.
Georgia's Malaki Starks struck me as the prototype for the modern NFL safety. He went at #27 to the Baltimore Ravens. South Carolina's Nick Emmanwori is a physical freak (6'3" 220 lbs. with a 4.38 40-yard dash) and somehow slid to the Seattle Seahawks at #35.
It's something to keep in mind with Downs, particularly when you see him near the top of so many draft boards this season. There is a fade at safety that must be taken into account.
But that's a reflection of the change in the positional value as the NFL keeps tilting in favor of the passing game, not about Downs' ability as a player. He's a special talent who appears poised to have another great season.
2027 NFL Draft Prospects
AFC East: Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots |
New York Jets | Miami Dolphins
AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South:
Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
Tennessee Titans
AFC West:
Denver Broncos |
Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers
NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys |
New York Giants |
Philadelphia Eagles |
Washington Commanders
NFC North:
Chicago Bears |
Detroit Lions |
Green Bay Packers |
Minnesota Vikings
NFC South:
Atlanta Falcons |
Carolina Panthers |
New Orleans Saints |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West:
Arizona Cardinals |
Los Angeles Rams |
San Francisco 49ers |
Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Football - ADP: Average Draft Position - Solid Locks and Sleepers
